How Pakistani cars lose value with age

Measured over the first five years from each variant's own newest model year, the strongest holders in this dataset are Honda City (7.9%), Suzuki Baleno (10.6%), KIA Sportage (16.5%) — that is the percentage of value lost by depreciation year 5, so a lower number is better. Every figure is the fitted curve for that model's highest-volume variant.

Over the same first five years, the steepest curves here belong to Suzuki Cultus (34.8%), Toyota Prius (29.6%), Honda Vezel (27.2%). A fast curve is not automatically a bad buy — it means the car is cheaper second-hand than new, which is exactly what a used buyer wants.

Year 1 is each variant's newest model year available on the market — 2026 for a trim still in production, 2020 for a Corolla GLi, 2019 for a Mehran. There is no showroom price in this data, so percentages answer "how much does this trim lose over its first N years on the road", not "how much has it lost since new". Indexing this way lets a discontinued trim and a current one be compared over the same ownership span.

Each of the 86 model-variant curves is a regression of log price on car age and age squared, fitted on 118,843 de-duplicated market listings, with depreciation forced to increase with age and the ends of each curve clamped to the age range actually observed for that variant. Switch on Observed medians to see the raw listing medians behind each line.

Not directly. Every listing was collected inside one scraping window, so a curve compares a 2026 car against a 2016 car priced today — a cross-section, not one car followed through time. With PKR inflation, a car you keep loses less in rupees than the gradient suggests. For your specific car, run it through the fair price assessor, which adjusts for its condition, mileage, and city.

Taking the median across every model on this page, a car loses about 10.9% by year 3, 20.7% by year 5, 41.5% by year 10 — measured from its own year 1. Individual models sit well either side of that: the spread at year 5 runs from roughly 7.9% to 34.8%. Depreciation in Pakistan is gentler than in markets with cheap new cars, because import duties and PKR inflation keep used prices high.

Trims have their own supply, demand and buyer pool, so they hold value differently — and each is measured from its own year 1. A trim that stopped being built in 2020 has year 1 = 2020, so its year 5 car is a 2016 model while a current trim's year 5 car is a 2022. Indexing this way is what makes the two comparable at all; the tooltip prints the model year behind each point so you can see which cars are being compared.

These curves are national — one fit per model and variant across the whole dataset, not per city. City does move price levels (registration, local demand, dealer density), which the fair price assessor accounts for as a separate input. Treat the curve as the shape of the decline and the assessor as the number for your city.

The curves are fitted on age, not odometer, so they describe an average-mileage car of each age. A high-mileage car sits below its curve and a low-mileage one above it. TruPrice's assessor handles that separately: it predicts the expected mileage for a car of that age and model, then adjusts the fair price by how far the actual reading deviates.

No — each curve blends every priced listing for that variant, local and imported alike. Where a trim exists in both forms the curve sits between them. Assembly is a separate input in the fair price assessor, so use that when the specific car's origin matters.